Over the past couple of years, as postage and other offline mailing costs continued to rise while response rates declined due to a weak economy, prospecting for new customers became an increasingly more expensive proposition. As a result, many catalogers reduced their spending on acquiring new names, which limited, stopped, or even reversed house file growth. Understanding that house file name counts decline over time without continual replenishment from fresh names, catalogers knew that they needed to do all they could to retain their existing active customers. Additionally they sought to identify lapsed customers who could be successfully re-activated to replace more costly new name acquisition programs. The thinking was that the natural decline in house file names could be avoided or at least minimized, if these retention and reactivation efforts were successful, especially in 0 – 24 month recency segments which traditionally provide the margin to run their businesses profitably and provide funding for new customer acquisition.
Perhaps due to the length of this recent economic downturn, many catalogers, who knew they needed to retain 0-24 month house file counts as best they could, placed increasing emphasis on re-activating lapsed customers. While on the surface this looks like an acceptable way to offset the cost of acquiring new names, in reality, re-activated customers do not generally perform as well as new-to-file customers, given a similar cost to acquire, over time. We are now beginning to see the results of that shift in strategy; more single buyers vs. multi-buyers in customer files, declining performance in some multi-buyer segments, etc.
Is re-activating lapsed customers a bad strategy, then? Not necessarily. Is retaining and nurturing current active customers an adequate strategy to maintain house file counts when new name acquisition program results are below break-even? Probably not. So, should we continue prospecting even when results are below break-even? In some cases, yes.
How do you decide on a strategy? How will you know if it’s working? You need to be able to measure and monitor promotion costs and contribution of customer groups over time, based on original source. In other words, measure and monitor your customer’s Lifetime Value (LTV). By observing customer promotion cost and purchases over some time horizon, typically 6-12 months (or more, depending on where you begin to see significant performance differences and/or your tolerance for risk), you’ll know how much you can afford to invest in a name, based on the expected return you’ll receive within your LTV time horizon. If you make decisions about new name acquisition, customer retention, or re-activation investments based only on initial campaign performance, you will likely make some wrong decisions. For example, as a rule of thumb, new customers acquired from your web site (web as original source channel) typically have a LTV much lower than names acquired through an email or catalog original source channel. Catalog original source channel LTV’s are significantly higher than email.
Also as suggested above, the LTV for re-activated customers (those who used to buy from you, but have stopped buying) are typically lower than the LTV from new-to-file customers (those who have not bought before, but have an interest in you now).
Going further, you shouldn’t just evaluate LTV by original source channel. Evaluate LTV of customer groups by original product or product category purchase, prospecting name source, reactivation campaign effort. Evaluate LTV of customer groups based on any special retention offers you’ve made measured against LTV of other customers in the same segments that were not made the offer (assuming you have groups that are large enough for statistical validity).
So, what do you do if you don’t have a system for analyzing customer LTV? In the past, when those of us who called ourselves direct marketers were only concerned about our catalog channels and didn’t have promotion history in our databases, we could estimate 12 month LTV for a single channel from approximations of our advertising costs, margins, segment contact strategy, etc. and could be reasonably comfortable with the results. This approach would give us a good comparative view (even if not a totally accurate P&L view) of different lists, media, re-activation programs, acquisition season, and product group original source performance over time, which allowed us to rank our options for new customer acquisition or re-activation by ROI. However, in today’s multi-channel, multi-touch environment, this approach falls woefully short in providing guidance for decision-making.
Here are a few suggestions for getting solid LTV analyses for your decision-making:
1. Capture promotional activity and costs for all your channels in your marketing database by customer.
2. Make sure your matchback solution isn’t “unfairly” weighted to a specific channel. Use a balanced approach to attributing demand dollars to your pool of potential triggering promotions and their associated costs, so you can create an accurate customer P&L over time.
3. Make sure your LTV reporting tools are “user selectable” by time horizon, date, and the criteria against which you’ll evaluate your name groups (original source, product category, channel, etc) This will give you an opportunity to easily create a series of reports for a progressive analysis of key LTV variables.
4. Keep your data as granular as possible in the database, available for LTV reporting at a detailed level or rolled up in your analysis (i.e. detailed LTV by specific list, rolled up to measure LTV by list category, rolled up further to all response lists vs. all co-op lists, etc.).
5. Make sure you continually review your LTV’s against the LTV measures you used at the time you established your strategies, to make sure those strategies are continuing to support your profit and growth goals.
With the right data and analysis format to turn the data into information about how your customers are performing over time, you can answer the questions posed in the third paragraph of this post with some degree of specificity and confidence. Re-activating customers, using retention programs to make good customers better ones, and investing at a cost below breakeven to acquire new customers could be exactly the right thing for you to do, provided you can identify, through a robust LTV analysis and reporting system, groups of customers and prospect names sources, by original channel, source, product group, etc that generate an acceptable LTV. Using this information, you can then develop an intelligent strategy to re-build your house file counts and return to profitable sustainable growth.
In the past, for most mailers, creating an LTV analysis was essentially an annual or bi-annual major “project”, and seen as a necessary, occasional “audit cost” to make sure your business is on track. If you can execute #1-4 above, doing #5 no longer has to be an occasional “audit project” but instead a useful ongoing analysis to help you in setting and monitoring your customer file growth, acquisition, and contact strategies and your on-going LTV analyses won’t seem much more difficult to pull together than your typical end of season performance reporting exercise.